This is a fairly large scale, a 10-minute chart per month. It shows one key difference between the current moment and what is happening in the last month.
This refers to the growth in the yield of 10-year-old Treasuries, which suggests that the shares are bought for several days on the money earned from the sale of Treasuries. For the same reason, the rally attempt in early March failed, since there really was no risk on, and the yield of 10-year-olds continued to decline (red arrows).
The bond market is considered “smarter” than the stock market, and if (this is important) today the yield growth continues above 1%, then, in our opinion, this will increase the chances for SPY to close the gap from March 12 in the range of 270-274 (+) 8% of Tuesday’s closing level).