Not so long ago, we updated the look at the #dollar on Friday, 08/03/2018
and at #euro on Tuesday, 08/07/2018
Therefore, what is happening now, if it can surprise, then only by its speed, but not by direction. When you first see the reversal of the 2-year trend up, then a sharp impulse (in April) and subsequent consolidation, as it was in the dollar and euro, then the probabilities are in favor of the rate for further growth. Of course, this is only a probability, not a guarantee. But if you have a chance of success, conditionally, 2 to 1, even if at this particular moment the bet does not play, then systematic application of the statistical advantage is finally realized.
By the way, there is no conceptual difference between the market and, for example, the blackjack. You should always look for such introductory notes that give you an advantage. But this is a topic for a separate post, and we will certainly write it)
Returning to the ruble, formally there was an output upwards from consolidation. The reasons are not even that important. Most often such an exit occurs in the middle of a large movement. This gives us guidance on the goals that the dollar and the euro against the ruble will aim at (with kickbacks, of course). The dollar is at least 70. And the euro is a little more difficult, since the exchange rate is influenced by the dynamics of the euro against the dollar. Given that this cross-rate itself is in the consolidation, from which the dynamics are more likely to weaken the dollar, then the euro-ruble movement is unlikely to be of a smaller scale than the dollar-ruble (in%) and will lead to a minimum of 80.
And this, by the way, the minimum goals (70 for the dollar and 80 for the euro) with the horizon until the end of the year. We do not exclude the fact that these goals will be exceeded, and that this will happen more quickly. Subjectively, that’s exactly what we think. But these timing details are important, maybe for option traders, but not for most ordinary investors who want to save capital. Therefore, we will not focus on the dates, but we will return to updating the goals after the levels indicated above are reached.