Continuing the topic of market statistics, we want to share a chart from Pension Partners. It shows the history of the S & P-500 index from 1942. Gray marked «bull» markets, and pink — «bear». What is there to pay attention to? Firstly, the average result of the bull market (+ 172%) in amplitude is 5 times more than the average result of the bear market (-33%). Secondly, the «bullish» markets are much longer in time, and the current one, in general, is a record holder. Thirdly, the current “bullish” market still gives + 300% on the S & P-500 index and, as we see, the record of the 1990s (+ 400%) is still far away. Therefore, the argument about the exceptional overheating of the market does not make sense.
IMPORTANT: this information is very useful, but only for long-term investors. Speculators can ruin any of these red squiggles, because, in fact, a decrease from -30% to -50% on the index for 1-2 years. In general, this is another argument in favor of the claim that investment is a marathon, not a sprint. And how to use this knowledge, everyone decides for himself.